Consumption and investment growth set to stall
Whereas the first half of 2022 was still dominated by post-Covid catch-up consumption, high inflation has weighed heavily on consumer confidence in recent months. Consumption growth is therefore expected to stall in the second half of this year. Businesses are now also decreasingly optimistic about the future, so they are less inclined to invest.
Furthermore, the risk premium on corporate loans is rising and interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank are (in part) passed on. The result is rising interest rates and tighter credit conditions, which are slowing the growth of corporate investment still further. These developments are putting a brake on economic growth.
"GDP growth is expected to be significantly lower next year: 1.5%."
Economy expected to cool
"CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis" expects Dutch GDP to grow by 4.6% this year, mainly due to robust consumption growth in the first half-year and strong performances by the export sector.
GDP growth is expected to be significantly lower next year: 1.5%. Next year’s modest growth will be driven mainly by exports and the public sector. The slowdown in growth in the Netherlands will not be as sharp as in the eurozone as a whole, however, according to ABN AMRO. That is because the Dutch economy is relatively well placed in terms of current economic activity, its tight labour market and the financial position of households. Moreover, the Dutch central bank believes “some cooling of the economy is desirable to contain inflation and ease the tightness in the labour market”. 2
Source 2 https://www.dnb.nl/media/smcemhhy/concept-position-paper-dnb-rondetafelgesprek-impact-energieprijzen.pdf
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