Outlook
Projections for economic growth have been revised upwards by several authorities.
For example, the IMF expects the European economy to grow by 0.7% in 2023, despite the war between Russia and Ukraine. This is due in part to the fact that energy costs have proved to be less high than expected.
This will particularly benefit companies that have suffered most from the higher energy costs.
Consequently, the influence of this accumulation of costs, which was visible last year, is diminishing and ultimately fewer companies will find themselves in difficulties. This will in any event ensure that the fall in demand for commercial property caused by this accumulation of cost increases will be limited.
Savills expects long-term trends in particular will continue to determine how supply and demand ratios for commercial property evolve. One example is a shift in demand due to a preference for high-quality office space in prime locations.
This means that investors will have less worries about a drop in demand and risks to current cash flows. However, acquisitions and sales prompted by a further rise in deposit rates by the ECB will again have consequences for the total volume of investment in Dutch property. This volume will be limited until such time as a new price equilibrium is reached. This will most likely occur in 2023 H2.
"Savills expects uncertainty about the ECB's interest rate outlook and the impact of regulations on investment and development markets to affect Dutch real estate investment the most in 2023."
Sources Statistics Netherlands, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, De Nederlandsche Bank, ABN AMRO
Savills World Research We provide bespoke services for landowners, developers, occupiers and investors across the lifecycle of residential, commercial or mixed-use projects. We add value by providing our clients with research-backed advice and consultancy through our market-leading global research team
Savills plc: Savills plc is a global real estate services provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. We have an international network of more than 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, the UK, continental Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East, offering a broad range of specialist advisory, management and transactional services to clients all over the world. This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. While every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.
Alle inhoud © copyright 2021 Savills. Alle rechten zijn voorbehouden. Savills Nederland Holding B.V., opgericht en geregistreerd in Nederland. Gevestigd: Claude Debussylaan 48, 1082MD Amsterdam. KvK nummer: 33202244.
